Analysis of the relationship between economic factors and the transition to higher education in Zacatecas

Abstract

In several regions of Mexico, higher education institutions face significant challenges related to the decline in first-year enrollment, a phenomenon frequently associated with adverse household economic conditions. In the state of Zacatecas, this issue has raised concerns regarding the academic and financial sustainability of educational institutions, as well as young people’s access to higher education. This implies that economic conditions may influence the decision to continue university studies in different ways, making it necessary to analyze not only the general economic situation but also the specific components that may be associated with educational transition.

The objective of this research was to analyze the relationship between various economic factors and the transition to higher education in Zacatecas during the 2018–2024 period. The study was conducted under a quantitative approach, with a non-experimental, longitudinal design and an exploratory-correlational scope, based on aggregated annual data obtained from official sources. The dependent variable was university transition, understood as the proportion of students who continue into higher education after completing upper secondary education. The explanatory variables included economic indicators grouped into three analytical dimensions: economic capacity, vulnerability, and cost of living.

The statistical analysis was carried out using contemporaneous Spearman correlations and one-year lagged correlations, complemented by partial correlations controlling for the time trend and a leave-one-out sensitivity analysis. The results show that the aggregated index of economic dimensions does not clearly capture the heterogeneity of the phenomenon; however, at the level of specific indicators, more consistent associations were observed. In particular, household expenditure on transportation and education showed negative relationships with university transition when a one-year lag was incorporated, whereas youth unemployment showed a positive association under the same analytical scheme.

It is concluded that the relationship between household economy and the transition to higher education is neither uniform nor adequately summarized in a single composite indicator. The findings suggest that certain components of the cost of living and the youth labor context may play a relevant role in educational continuity, although their interpretation should be approached with caution due to the limited number of observations and the exploratory nature of the study.